Image

8:43 AM / Wednesday April 8, 2020

25 Jun 2012

Analysis: Gallup Poll consistently undercounts Black and Hispanic voters

  • Facebook
  • Twitter
June 25, 2012 Category: Stateside Posted by:

atlanta black star

Image

 

The nation’s most well-respected polling company, Gallup, under-estimates the public’s support for President Obama because it uses measures that don’t properly count the proportion of black and Hispanic voters who will come to the polls, according to an exhaustive analysis on the Huffington Post.

 

The media’s reporting on election campaigns has become to a large extent a daily recitation of results from the major polling sources, such as Gallup, CNN, ABC, the New York Times and NBC. Because Gallup takes daily tracking polls and has been doing it for so long, the Gallup poll is considered the most influential in the country.

 

But a story by Mark Blumenthal on the Huffington Post says the Gallup poll is deceptive because it consistently shows the election to be closer than the other polling sources. Blumenthal writes that this is because of several differences in the way that Gallup collects its information and weights the numbers to account for the population’s racial breakdown.

 

Every poll must count the number of people in each racial group that participated in the poll and attempt to extrapolate to determine how well the sample represents the country and the people who will vote.

 

In deciding how many black and Hispanic households should be used when it weights its numbers according to the population, Gallup uses the number of households that have home or mobile phones. This means that households with no phone would not be counted by Gallup—so the percentage of blacks and Hispanics in the voting population will be undercounted by Gallup.

 

Gallup also allows people to pick membership in more than once racial group, which could reduce the number of people who call themselves black—thus also reducing the number of blacks that Gallup counts in the voting population.

 

There are several other ways that Gallup undercounts the black population, according to Blumenthal.

 

Because Obama enjoys such widespread support in the black community, any moves that lower the percentage of blacks in their sample can significantly lower the level of support for the president in the poll results.

  • Facebook
  • Twitter

Leave a Comment

Recent News

Commentary

Divine Muva Diva: April 5, 2020

April 2, 2020

Tweet Share Pin Email Dear Muva: How do we as women harness and take hold of our...

Food And Beverage

Philadelphia adds food sites for residents in need

April 2, 2020

Tweet Share Pin Email Where to find free, nutritious food during the COVID-19 crisis In response to...

Entertainment

Earl Graves Sr., Founder of Black Enterprise Magazine passes away at 85

April 7, 2020

Tweet Share Pin Email Above Photo: Publisher and CEO of Black Enterprise Magazine Earl G. Graves, author...

Week In Review

Apr 9: Septa to close select stations, suspend certain regional rail and bus routes under New Lifeline Service

April 8, 2020

Tweet Share Pin Email New Lifeline service goes into effect on Thursday, April 9, 2020 across all...

Health

COVID-19 UPDATE: 65 deaths in Philadelphia, 4272 infected

April 7, 2020

Tweet Share Pin Email PHILADELPHIA – The Philadelphia Department of Public Health today announced 544 additional presumptive...

Go With The-Flo

Lizzo treated a number of hospital staffs, when they were being overwhelmed with COVID-19 patients, to lunch

April 2, 2020

Tweet Share Pin Email ABOVE PHOTO: Lizzo (Photo: Lev Radin / shutterstock) By Florence Anthony According to...

The Philadelphia Sunday Sun Staff